Every now and then something appears in the news that regardless of how often you read it through still resists understanding. A recent article about the costs of nuclear accidents presents just such a problem.
Since many of you are probably too tired to read the whole report (it IS Monday), the pertinent point is copied below.
"According to the subcommittee (of the Japan Atomic Energy Commission), the total operating hours of Japan's nuclear reactors to date is equivalent to more than 1,400 years. Due to the fact that the Fukushima power plant's three nuclear reactors experienced severe accidents, the subcommittee estimated such incidents would occur once in every 500 years."
Now YOU know and *I know that the nuclear power plants at Fukushima were first commissioned in 1971. Now I am not good at math, but that seems to be something like 40 years ago. Am I missing something?
A Hard Hitting News Hound doesn't stop there, however, he goes for the in-depth look at the issues. I needed to talk to someone on the spot and scored an interview with Mr. Hosha Sen of the Japan Atomic Energy Commission Subcommittee.
His secretary showed me into his office where he was busily taking papers off of one pile, stamping them and putting them on another pile. A cigarette with a long ash dangled from his lip.
Mr. Sen: Who are you?
HHNH: I am the reporter who requested the interview with you today.
Mr. Sen: Nobody said anything about a foreigner....
HHNH: I'm sorry...
Mr. Sen: No matter... I am happy to explain the virtues of nuclear power to anyone and to make clear how it is our only hope for a continued supply of energy for today and going forward.
HHNH: Yes....
Mr. Sen: The public demands electricity! And we have the means to provide it safely and in large quantities well into the future!
HHNH: Yes.... um... What I am interested in asking is about a recent news release from your subcommittee about the frequency of nuclear accidents?
Mr. Sen: Yes? (He arranges the stamped papers into a neat pile and pats it thoughtfully.)
HHNH: Your subcommittee said that an accident would only occur every 500 years and that the power plants had already been in operation for 1400 years.
Mr. Sen: Yes! It just goes to show how open we are and eager to err on the side of safety. The 500 year calculation is actually based on the total 1400 years of operation. If we were to be completely accurate we would have divided the 1400 years by 3 and come up with an unrounded figure of 466.66 years. But since we want to make things easier for the public to understand, we rounded it up — UP, mind you! — to 500. (He sat back in his chair with a very satisfied look on his face.)
HHNH: I see... Correct me if I am wrong here, but weren't the nuclear power plants built in 1971? I don't remember reading about them in the Kojiki (ancient Japanese text).
Mr. Sen: HA HA! You foreigners with your jokes! (He flicks the ash off his cigarette.) Let me see if I can explain this in a way that even YOU will understand. (He looks at me like I probably won't.) You see... nuclear power plants use a different way of calculating years. Hmm... how can I explain this to someone who doesn't understand anything.... Well... you know how they say a dog ages 6 years for every year a human ages?
HHNH: Uh...yes?
Mr. Sen: Good... you grasp the principle then. Nuclear power plants are like dogs. Of course WE know the power plants in Fukushima were commissioned in 1971; WE monitored their construction! That was 40 human years ago. However for the nuclear power plants, that was 1400 years ago. Do you get it?
HHNH: Sort of...
Mr. Sen: Good. The 1400 years of operation is actually ALL of the nuclear power plants in Japan, so the fact that we had an incident at Fukushima's three reactors means that we can expect an episode every 500 years or so. Which means that nuclear power is very safe!
HHNH: But... but...
Mr. Sen: I mean, what other power supplier can say that they won't have an accident but once every 500 years?! NONE! (He hits the table with his fist.) None I tell you!
HHNH: But...
Mr. Sen: Thank you for coming around today... Mr.... Mr... Mr. Foreigner? The secretary will show you the way out.
There you have it. We can trust that we won't have another nuclear incident until 2511 or 2050, depending on whether it's nuclear power plant years or human years we count.
I am so relieved.
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